It's early September as we write this, but we wanted to take an opportunity to summarize our expectations ahead of AAPEX, NACE and SEMA. November will quickly approach, and it is our thought that this year?s shows will be memorable. Looking back to last year, we thought the overall attendance was much better than we had anticipated, particularly as our economy was in the midst of an economic crisis. To our surprise, most left the show with an upbeat feeling in spite of the macro turmoil. Even the lower level at AAPEX last year was somewhat robust as foreign entrants continue to compete aggressively, namely on price.

Although the program has boosted sales, BB&T maintains the aftermarket has not been greatly affected by Cash for Clunkers.

GM and Chrysler dealership closings are expected to bring an estimated $1 billion into the independent aftermarket.

O'Reilly has had a successful 10 months since its purchase of CSK Auto, and this reflects overall expected improvement throughout the entire aftermarket.

If passed, 'Cash for Clunkers' legislation will not greatly impact the aftermarket as originally thought.

Tony Cristello with BB&T discusses how positive sales growth and performance leave some industry analysts wondering if the aftermarket is feeling the same economic downturn as other industries.

There is a fundamental mismatch between supply — current auto manufacturing capacity — and vehicle demand. This situation could boost the aftermarket with longer vehicle lives and higher repair costs.

The aftermarket is working to put to rest the ghosts of aftermarket past, present and future that haunt the industry in order to move forward with success and profitability. As the ghost of aftermarket past shows, we believe that mounting consumer pressures, particularly in our aftermarket coverage group, began taking shape almost three years ago — despite the recession only officially being declared in December 2007.

Our most recent aftermarket breakfast panel hosted executives representing the entire supply chain, from the supplier level to the distributors and retailers, down to the professional technicians. Panelists noted that challenges facing consumers are widespread and keeping expectations low for now is prudent. Also, there was agreement with our thesis that the aftermarket has been operating in a somewhat recessionary environment for the past two-and-a-half years.